Global markets opened the week on a cautious note as investors braced for a stretch that could decide whether the AI-driven stock rally keeps running or stalls. According to Reuters, share markets got off to a hesitant start on Monday, October 26, 2026, with oil easing from six-month highs ahead of a week packed with central bank meetings and company earnings.

The early moves were small. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures edged up 0.2%. Brent crude fell 1.0% to $115.48 a barrel amid reports that Qatari mediators were in Tehran as part of an effort, coordinated with the United States, to ease regional tensions. Analysts at Goldman Sachs flagged oil as a key risk, noting that futures sit above their forecasts largely because of fears of further conflict with Iran.

The main event is earnings. About one-third of S&P 500 companies report this week, the largest batch of the season. Alphabet and Microsoft are due on Wednesday, followed by Amazon on Thursday, with Intel, Sandisk, Eli Lilly, Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Caterpillar also on the calendar. Consensus expects Microsoft to post revenue of about $90.6 billion and adjusted earnings of $4.73 per share, Amazon revenue of about $202 billion and earnings near $1.97 per share, and Alphabet revenue of about $128 billion and earnings of $3.00 per share.

These three hyperscalers matter beyond their own results. Their capital spending, expected to be around $800 billion this year, is lifting the bottom lines of a wide range of companies involved in the AI buildout, but investors are wary about how sustainable that outlay is amid rising financing costs. King Lip, chief strategist at BakerAvenue Wealth Management, said earnings will show whether the recent tech pullback is a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper correction.

The Federal Reserve adds a second test. Policy makers meet this week, with the decision due on Wednesday, after raising rates in September for the first time since 2023 to rein in above-target inflation. Fed funds futures suggest only a small chance of another hike this week, in part because investors doubt the central bank will move just a week before the midterm elections. Markets are leaning toward a hike in December, with futures pricing roughly an 80% probability, and Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to skip October before delivering a second hike in December.

Oil complicates the picture. The inflationary pulse from higher crude is likely to worry every central bank meeting this week, with rate hikes seen as a matter of time even where policy makers hold for now. In Australia, markets put the chance of a Reserve Bank of Australia hike next Tuesday above 60%, and the ASX 200 opened the week lower.

The backdrop is one of strong profits and shaky sentiment. LSEG data shows S&P 500 companies are on track to have grown third-quarter earnings by more than 32%, yet worries about AI spending have already pressured parts of the market. For investors, the next few days will show whether corporate fundamentals can outweigh concerns about AI costs, higher oil prices and a tighter Fed. For business leaders, the signals from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon on cloud demand and data-center spending will shape budgets and expectations well beyond Wall Street.